High impact/Low probability

In any study which produces estimates of probability and impact of future developments, it is possible to group the events into a 2×2 matrix where the axes are probability and impact. The future developments may be placed in this matrix to display the high impact/ low probability developments (and all of the other permutations) This grouping has special significance: it includes those developments which may appear as important surprises: they are surprises because they have been seen as low probability; they are important because they have been seen as high impact. Important surprises can upset plans or bring new opportunities and should be considered in all policy studies.