Conjecture (hypothesis, assumption)

(1) Intellectual construction of a plausible future based on a model of causal relations that are considered necessary and appropriate. It is the intellectual construction of a probable future. (2) A mathematical statement which appears likely to be true, but has not been formally proven to be true under the rules of mathematical logic. (3) A statement based on inference and presumed to be real, true, or genuine though based on inconclusive grounds as opposed to a hypothesis, which is a testable statement. One of the seminal works on the philosophy of futures research is the Art of Conjecture by Bertrand de Jouvenel.