Black Swan

A metaphor describing an extremely low-probability /unforeseen, high impact event that takes everyone by surprise. It is an extremely rare event which has enormous effects on society. Due to their extreme rarity, the occurrence of Black Swans cannot be predicted even with robust modeling. Some experts even say that the use of standard forecasting tools can leave us more vulnerable to them, providing a false sense of security. Black Swans are also characterized by a posterior rationalization by experts, saying that said event could have always been predicted. It is often used interchangeably with the term ‘Wild Card’. It is often rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.