Heuristic modeling

A simple computer simulation model based on a matrix of interactions between variables. The model method is quite similar to other now-established heuristic methods, notably Delphi surveys, scenario building, simulation modeling, and cross-impact analysis. In their various manifestations, these all seek insights into the variety of possible outcomes from the interaction within a broad range of variables, adopting some element of “quantification”. The core of the method is a simulation similar to KSIM and System Dynamics. The is a simple set of linear equations rather than non-linear relationships which might be more valid; however these equations integrate lags and periodic disturbances and show how multipliers build up through time. Methods such as SMIC and cross-impact, in contrast, deal only with first-round effects. The heuristic model even mimics complex system type results in its sensitivity and variety of outcomes.