Long cycles theories or long wave theory

Origin: Lat. largus cyclus gr. θεωρία theōría

Theory in economic and International Relations literature with roots in the economic long wave theories, on the one hand, and the war/hegemony cycles theories, on the other. The theory asserts that throughout the evolution of the modern era one can discern economic cycles of approximately 50 years marked by recurring upswing and downswing periods, and international political cycles of approximately 100 years, in which successive major powers exercised world leadership, more often than not, in the wake of a global war (involving all major powers). George Modelski’s long cycles model, which recognizes both certain recurrent historical patterns and possible novel evolutions, is particularly well-suited for anticipating the future transition of power and the dialectic relationship between the mega-historical processes of the Great Divergence and Great Convergence, provided that its insights are used in conjunction with other foresight methods.

Spanish: Teoría de ciclos largo o teoría de onda larga

Sources and references

Goldstein, J. S. (1988). Long Cycles: Prosperity and War in the Modern Age. New Haven/London: Yale University Pressview
Grinin, L., & Korotayev, A. (2015). Great Divergence and Great Convergence: A Global Perspective. International Perspectives on Social Policy, Administration and Practice. Basel: Springerview
Kondratieff, N. D., & Stolper, W. F. (1935). The Long Waves in Economic Life. Review of Economics and Statistics, 17(6), 105–115. http://www.jstor.orgview
Modelski, G., & Denemark, R. A. (Eds.) (2009). World System History. Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems Volume I. Oxford: EOLSS Publishers/UNESCOview
Modelski, G. (1987). Long Cycles in World Politics. Houndmills/London: The Macmillan Presscited 2 times
Pop, A. (2019). Long Cycles and Anticipation. In R. Poli (Ed.), Handbook of Anticipation: Theoretical and Applied Aspects of the Use of Future in Decision Making (pp. 639-663). Cham: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31737-3_85-2cited 2 times
Pop, A. (2021). Towards a bifurcated future in US-China relations: What is in it for the EU?, Futures, 125(1), January 2021, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2020.102634cited 2 times
Wallerstein I. & Clesse, A. (Eds.) (2002). The World We Are Entering, 2000–2050. Amsterdam: Duke University Pressview

Term connections

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Sources and references

Goldstein, J. S. (1988). Long Cycles: Prosperity and War in the Modern Age. New Haven/London: Yale University Pressview

Grinin, L., & Korotayev, A. (2015). Great Divergence and Great Convergence: A Global Perspective. International Perspectives on Social Policy, Administration and Practice. Basel: Springerview

Kondratieff, N. D., & Stolper, W. F. (1935). The Long Waves in Economic Life. Review of Economics and Statistics, 17(6), 105–115. http://www.jstor.orgview

Modelski, G., & Denemark, R. A. (Eds.) (2009). World System History. Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems Volume I. Oxford: EOLSS Publishers/UNESCOview

Modelski, G. (1987). Long Cycles in World Politics. Houndmills/London: The Macmillan Presscited 2 times

Pop, A. (2019). Long Cycles and Anticipation. In R. Poli (Ed.), Handbook of Anticipation: Theoretical and Applied Aspects of the Use of Future in Decision Making (pp. 639-663). Cham: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31737-3_85-2cited 2 times

Pop, A. (2021). Towards a bifurcated future in US-China relations: What is in it for the EU?, Futures, 125(1), January 2021, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2020.102634cited 2 times

Wallerstein I. & Clesse, A. (Eds.) (2002). The World We Are Entering, 2000–2050. Amsterdam: Duke University Pressview