Foresight methods

Origin: Lat. prospicere methŏdus gr. μέθοδος

QUALITATIVE Methods providing meaning to events and perceptions. Such interpretations tend to be based on subjectivity or creativity often difficult to corroborate (e.g. brainstorming, interviews Backcasting Brainstorming Causal Layer Analysis Citizens panels Conferences/workshops Essays /Scenario writing Expert panels Futures Wheel Genius forecasting QUANTITATIVE Methods measuring variables and applying statistical analyses, using or generating (hopefully) reliable and valid data (e.g. economic indicators) Agent Modeling Benchmarking Bibliometrics Cross Impact Analysis Decision Modeling Indicators / time series analysis Modeling SEMI‐QUANTITATIVE Methods which apply mathematical principles to quantify subjectivity, rational judgments and viewpoints of experts and commentators (i.e. weighting opinions) Cross‐impact / structural analysis Delphi Environmental Scanning Field Anomaly Relaxation Gaming Key / Critical technologies Morphology Analysis Interviews Literature review Morphological analysis Relevance trees /logic charts Role play / Acting Scanning Scenario /Scenario workshops Science fictioning (SF) Simulation gaming Surveys SWOT analysis Weak signals /Wildcards Non-Linear Modeling (Chaos) Patent analysis Prediction Markets Robust Decision Making Simulation State of the Future Index Substitution Analysis Systems Perspective Technology Sequence Analysis Time Series Analysis Trend extrapolation Trend Impact Analysis Multi‐criteria analysis Multiple Perspectives Polling / Voting Quantitative scenarios / SMIC Real Time Delphi Roadmapping Text Mining Stakeholder analysis

Spanish: Métodos prospectivos

Sources and references

Armstrong, J. Scott (ed) ”Principles of forecasting: a handbook for researchers and practitioners” Springer, Philadelphia, 2001cited 3 times
George Kurian and Graham Molitor (ed), The 21st Century, Macmillan, New York, 1996cited 5 times
Harold Linstone and Murray Turoff, “The Delphi Method,” Addison Wesley, Reading MA, 1975, ISBN 0-201-04294-0view
Luke Georghiou, Jennifer Harper, Michael Keenan, Cassengena Harper, Ian Mills and Rafael Popper “Foresight Methodology”, The Handbook Of Technology Foresight Concepts and Practice., Elgar Publishing, Northhampton, MA., 2008, ISBN 97884542869cited 2 times
Millennium Project: Futures Research Methods, FRM v3. The Millennium Project, Washington DCview
Spyros Makridakis, Steven Wheelwright, and Victor McGee, “Forecasting Methods and Applications, John Wikey, New York,1983, ISBN 0-471 408610 Xview
Popper, Rafael “Foresight Methodology”, The Handbook Of Technology Foresight Concepts and Practiceview
Wendell Bell, “Foundations of Future Studies, Vol 1 and Vol 2, Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick and New York, 1997, ISBN 1-56000-81-6cited 7 times

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Sources and references

Armstrong, J. Scott (ed) ”Principles of forecasting: a handbook for researchers and practitioners” Springer, Philadelphia, 2001cited 3 times

George Kurian and Graham Molitor (ed), The 21st Century, Macmillan, New York, 1996cited 5 times

Harold Linstone and Murray Turoff, “The Delphi Method,” Addison Wesley, Reading MA, 1975, ISBN 0-201-04294-0view

Luke Georghiou, Jennifer Harper, Michael Keenan, Cassengena Harper, Ian Mills and Rafael Popper “Foresight Methodology”, The Handbook Of Technology Foresight Concepts and Practice., Elgar Publishing, Northhampton, MA., 2008, ISBN 97884542869cited 2 times

Millennium Project: Futures Research Methods, FRM v3. The Millennium Project, Washington DCview

Spyros Makridakis, Steven Wheelwright, and Victor McGee, “Forecasting Methods and Applications, John Wikey, New York,1983, ISBN 0-471 408610 Xview

Popper, Rafael “Foresight Methodology”, The Handbook Of Technology Foresight Concepts and Practiceview

Wendell Bell, “Foundations of Future Studies, Vol 1 and Vol 2, Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick and New York, 1997, ISBN 1-56000-81-6cited 7 times

Foresight methods

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Foresight methods

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