Modelski model

George Modelski's model starts from the premise that the modern world has witnessed five long cycles of world leadership of approximately 100 years each. A cycle includes four main phases, each phase stretching over a period of approximately 25 years. These phases are (1) Global war – the intense political conflict period that marks the transition from one cycle to another, which is achieved, in most cases, through war, (2) World power – that interval of time when order is achieved through the unquestioned world leadership role of the new dominant power, (3) Delegitimation– the period of time when the new economic, social and security challenges take place and the legitimacy of the global leader is eroded, and (4) Deconcentration – that period of time when the world leader experiences lower degrees of power concentration and a new power arises that could endanger the status of the world leader, including by building new alliances – see Table 1. Table 1: Modelski model: Long cycles in global politics (systemic model) Phases Global war World power De legitimation Deconcentration Major warfare Nation-state Challenger Portuguese cycle 1494-1516 1516-1539 1540-1560 1560-1580 Italian and Indian Portugal Ocean wars Spain Dutch cycle 1580-1609 1609-1639 1640-1660 1660-1688 Spanish-Dutch war Netherlands France First British cycle 1688-1713 1714-1739 1740-1763 1764–1792 Wars of Louis XIV Britain I France Second British cycle 1792-1815 1815-1849 1850-73 1874–1914 Wars of French Britain II Revolution and Napoleon Germany American cycle 1914/1917-1945 1945-1978 1978-2008/2009 2008/2009-2038/2039 World Wars I & II United States Soviet Union/Russia, China. The implementation of this model implies the following steps: 1) Identifying the most important drivers deemed to impact the relationship between the current dominant power and its main challenger; 2) Connecting the identified drivers with relevant indexes; 3) Quantifying the identified drivers for TIA using different relevant indexes; 4) Creating an algorithm for the extrapolation of trends; 5) Creating a list of possible events able to impact the relationship between the current dominant power and its main challenger; 6) Identifying the impact of possible events upon trends; 7) Developing alternative power transition and world leadership scenarios, based on the impact of possible events upon trends, using the Probabilistic Modified Trends approach. In order to overcome the Modelski model built limits and improve its anticipatory value, it is mandatory to implement appropriate foresight methods, including the Trend Impact Analysis (TIA) and Scenarios.