Exploratory forecasting

Exploratory approaches generally deal with question of what may, might, or could possibly happen on the basis of the forces at play. The methods and techniques of normative and exploratory forecasting overlap. Exploratory forecasts, however, tend to rely much more strongly on mathematical analysis and formal, quantitative trend forecasting, as well as extensive use of probabilistic methods. An exploratory forecast generally moves forward into the future in terms of forces at play. Exploratory forecasting reflects a continuity model of the future. The objective in the exploratory forecast is to examine the various ways in which those forces and components may play out. Exploratory forecasting rarely suggests a single outcome but, much in tune with contemporary futures research, yields alternative futures.