Forecast
Origin: Lat. prognostĭcum, del gr. προγνωστικόν
A forecast is a statement or claim that refers to the occurrence of a future event or events, usually expressed together with the probability of the event or events occurring by certain dates. Forecasts can be produced by objective or subjective means. Objective systems can use models of one sort or another which are linear or non-linear extrapolations of the past. Subjective forecasts can be the intuitive product of a single individual or group, and are usually based on experience and judgment. Forecasts should not be taken as immutable or as “predictions” which would imply certainty.
Spanish: Pronóstico
Sources and references
- Jackson, Michael “Foresight Glossary”; http://www.shapingtomorrow.com/media-centre/pf-ch11.pdfcited 31 times
- Barbieri Masini, Eleonora. “Why Future Studies ” Grey Seal, London, 1993 ISBN 185640082view
- Armstrong, J. Scott (ed) ”Principles of forecasting: a handbook for researchers and practitioners” Springer, Philadelphia, 2001cited 3 times
- Rescher, Nicholas. “Predicting the future: An introduction to the theory of forecasting” State University of New York Press, Albany, 1998view
Term connections
+48 more connections not shown here. (see the lists below)
Mentioned by
- Analogy
- Averaging methods
- Baseline
- Box Jenkins models
- Causal layered analysis
- Causal models
- Corporate foresight
- Correlation
- Decomposition
- Delphi method
- Dictionary: FUTURES World Foresight Encyclopedic Dictionary
- Dynamical systems models
- Early warning system
- Econometrics models
- Environmental scanning
- Evaluation (assessment)
- Evolutionary spiral of development
- Exploratory forecasting
- Exponential smoothing
- Forecast methods
- Forecasting
- Foresight (future studies, futures thinking, anticipation)
- Futures horizon
- Futures methodology
- Futures: World Foresight Encyclopedic Dictionary
- Genius forecasting
- Government foresight
- In-depth interviews
- Issue, key issue, in play, stake
- Jackknife
- Judgmental forecasting
- La prospective
- Linear extrapolation
- Long-term Strategic Management System Integration Model (LSMSIM)
- Methods table
- Multiple linear regression
- Normative forecasting
- Prediction markets
- Predictive extrapolative methods
- Probabilistic cross-impact matrix
- Projection
- Public opinion surveys
- Researching Futures of X
- Robust decision-making
- Scenario (story, narrative, outcome, path)
- Scenario, context analysis
- Scenario matrix
- Self-altering
- Space-time model
- Strategic and tactics
- Substitution analysis
- Tech-cast
- Technology roadmapping
- Temporal horizon
- Time series analysis
- Trend impact analysis
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