Normative forecasting

Almost always reflects the needs of an organization and, therefore, is goal-oriented. Goal-oriented forecasting tends to take into account an organization's purpose, its mission, and, most importantly, its expected achievements in the future. Normative forecasting is usually associated with large organizations, both public and private, as an important component of decision-making and a factor in resource allocation. The normative forecast consists of two essential parts. First is the statement of a goal or set of goals for a specific time; second is the analysis in detail of how to reach the goal or goals. The statement of the goal itself must be realistic and take into account a general awareness of present and future circumstances, resources, and social, scientific, technological contexts, etc. Crucial to the process is the detailed analysis, which reveals the specific steps or stages that must be met and how they will be met at specific times in moving toward the goal. The function of a normative forecast is to allow an organization to orchestrate its resources in a highly targeted way in order to achieve a goal. Ideally, normative forecasting, as with any other kind of forecast, should leave the user and other professionals with the sense that they understand the process and that, if they had gone through the process, they would come to similar results. Normative forecasting could be seen as a celebration of human potency and efficiency. If the ability to shape or influence the future somehow were not implicit in the concept of normative forecasting, the concept would be self-contradictory. Not every statement of a goal is a normative forecast. The majority of them are not. The methods and techniques of normative and exploratory forecasting overlap. Normative forecasting tends to rely more heavily on qualitative tools, since it involves more open-ended, uncertain, and creative elements of the futures enterprise. Genius forecasting and greater use of science fiction is more used in normative forecasting.