Causal layered analysis

A method for examining the causes of social change that produces forecasts as to the future course of those changes. Its inventor, Sohail Inayatullah, explains that, “as a theory it seeks to integrate empiricist, interpretive, critical and action learning modes of knowing. As a method, its utility is not in predicting the future but in creating transformative spaces for the creation of alternative futures.” It explores four levels of analysis as shown below:

1) "litany", quantitative trends, problems, often exaggerated, often used for political purposes; 2) Social causes, including economic, cultural, political and historical factors; 3) Structure and discourse/worldview that supports and legitimates it; and 4) Metaphor or myth, which are deep stories, the collective archetypes (unconscious and often emotive dimensions of the problem or the paradox). These four layers overlap.

This method helps the user have a greater understanding of the dynamics of change because it “unpacks” worldviews, ideologies, discourses, archetypes, myth and metaphors. CLA is not concerned with predicting a particular future, but of creating understandings that are inputs to scenarios. The following chart can guide users in their analysis:

LEVEL	PROBLEM	SOLUTION	WHO CAN SOLVE IT?	SOURCE INFORMATION
Litany Official public discourse	Problem seems difficult to solve or easy to solve as depth is not seen	Short term approaches	Government	Television Newspaper
Systemic, Social Science analysis; Society, Technology, Economy, Environment and Politics.	Problem because of short term historical factors.	Integrated approaches – systemic solutions.	Partnerships between different sectors of society – government plus business plus civil society plus individuals	Policy Journals, editorials
Worldview (Discourse – Paradigm)	Constituted by frame of analysis – deep structure.	Transform consciousness, change worldview, rethink self and other	Writers, philosophers, those outside the dominant discourse	Peripheral journals, ideological journals, philosophy courses
Myth and Metaphor	Constituted by core myth, derived from often a traumatic or transcendent event	Uncover myth and metaphors and create processes to imagine alternative stories of what it means to be. Cannot be rationally designed. Emergence is necessary	Collective unconscious often guided by visionary, mystic, leader.	Works of artists, visionaries, mystics, and certain movies