Genius forecasting
Origin: Lat. genĭus, prognostĭcum, Gr. προγνωστικόν
This term was coined by Ralph Lenz, but is most closely associated with Herman Kahn, who was considered a genius futurist. It is an unspecified set of processes used by geniuses to arrive at statements about the future. The processes need not be the same for any two geniuses. Genius forecasts are those pronouncements in their areas of expertise for which they have proven insight. Genius forecasts can also come from people whose IQ is less than genius, but who have proven great insight in some specialty. It is the most desirable normative forecast. The three principal difficulties with genius forecasting are: 1) To know how to order one up. 2) To recognize and accept the forecast made by a person. 3) Genius limited vision to all fields of human enterprise. Benefits from data. Presenting the results of a simulation model or a TIA to an individual who is trying to imagine a desirable future or assess the impacts of a particular series of developments will, one hopes, inform the judgments.
Spanish: Pronóstico genial
Sources and references
- Glenn, Jerome “Genius Forecasting, Intuition and Vision”, Futures Research Methodology V.3 The Millennium Projectcited 5 times
- Coates, Joseph F. and Jerome Glenn.”Normative forecasting “ Futures Research Methodology V.3 The Millennium Projectcited 7 times
- Gordon, Theodore J. and Jerome C. Glenn .”Integration, comparisons and frontiers of FR Methods“,Futures Research Methodology V.3 The Millennium Projectcited 18 times
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