Start from past and present trends and lead to likely futures. A scenario comprises a set of plausiblehypotheses on each of the key questions. The objective is first of all to explore, and then reduce the "space of scenarios" (morphological analysis), taking into account the exclusions stemming, for example, from possible incompatibilities between certain hypotheses. The question arises, then, of how coherent are the scenarios thus preselected. The method used (SMIC Prob experts (from the MICMAC method)) consists of asking the participants about these hypotheses' probabilities of simple and conditional occurrence. Their answers will allow deducing the various scenarios' global probabilities. Consequently, exploratory scenarios will be chosen among the most probable ones. These scenarios are thus built with no a priori objective. However, they will allow marking out the long-term freedom space of a major actor such as the one who leads the study. So, they will be crucial for the elaboration and determination of strategic options. On the other hand, the strategic options will convey an intention, some objectives, as well as the pursuit of a wished-for future.
Godet, Michel. “A Tool-Box for scenario planning”, Futures Research Methodology V.3 The Millennium Projectcited 17 times
Árcade Jacques, Michel Godet, Francis Meunier and Frabrice Roubelat, “Structural Analysis with the MicMac Method and Actors Strategy with the Mactor Method”, Futures Research Methodology V.3 The Millennium Projectcited 18 times
