Morphological analysis

Method that allows the decomposition of the studied system into essential magnitudes (fields, and variables) and the study of its possible recombinations to determine its possible evolutions. Morphology refers to the study of the structure or form of something. By breaking down something into its components or aspects, we can systematically think about each one in turn. Without a morphological analysis, we may easily overlook certain factors when we try to solve a problem or understand what is happening in a particular situation. One method is to list all possible variables, which are then analyzed in themselves and in their possible combinations. It is a complementary technique, often used in conjunction with the relevance tree, that is used to identify new product opportunities. It’s a proven ideation method that leads to “organized invention”. The technique allows for two elements: 1) systematic analysis of the current and future structure of a domain as well as key gaps in that structure and 2) a strong stimulus for the invention of new alternatives that fill these gaps and meet any imposed requirements. Zwicky outlined five basic steps in the development of the morphological method: 1. Formulation and definition of a problem; 2. Identification and characterization of all parameters toward a solution. 3. Construction of a multidimensional matrix (morphological box) whose combinations will contain all possible solutions. 4. Evaluation of the outcome based on feasibility and achievement of desired goals. 5. In-depth analysis of the best possibilities, considering available resources.

A complex problem has several characteristics: 1) Multi-dimensional. A multidimensional problem involves a number of complex aspects. For example, the complex problem might have to deal with financial, political, and social dimensions, which must be treated together, as a whole. 2) Uncertainty. The dimensions of the complex problem are often non-quantifiable, and are continuously evolving. 3) Subjective. There is no absolutely right or wrong solution to the problem. There are five main activities that need to be performed in morphological analysis. Activity 1: Describe the problem. In describing the problem, you identify all issues (Sub-activity 1-1a) that might relate to/be caused by/cause the problem. In line with that, you need to define the dimensions (Sub-activity 1-1b) that affect the problem. Accordingly, you gather the result of these activities into a policy problem [Sub-activity 1-2]. Activity 2: Analyze the possible solution’s parameters. Once you have a policy problem in hand, you decompose it into some problem’s values (Sub-activity 2-1). Each dimension that you have defined in the policy problem might consist of one or more values. Then you decompose the values into more specific concepts, called parameters (Sub-activity 2-2). Activity 3: Construct a morphological box. This activity, constructing a morphological box, forces you to document/organize what you have thought/discussed so far. You create a two-dimensional matrix, transform the pre-defined values as the column headers and list the corresponding parameters under each value. Activity 4: Evaluate possible solutions. The first sub-activity you need to perform in evaluating possible solutions is performing cross- consistency assessment (Sub-activity 4-1) to all parameters against each other. If you find two parameters are contradictory, you put a cross (x) mark into the morphological field. Secondly you determine one or more input constraints (Sub-activity 4-2), that is, parameter(s) that must be included in the future solution or solution space. (Sub-activity 4-3) The last activity is to combine the pre-constructed morphological box (Activity 3), the cross consistency assessment result (Sub-activity 4-1), and the predefined input constraint (Sub-activity 4-2). You highlight the morphological field on the morphological box that fulfills the input constraint with a certain color. Then you map the cross-consistency assessment result of the input constraint to the parameters on the morphological box and finally you highlight the blank morphological field with another color. The parameters highlighted in the two different colors make up the solution space.

Activity 5: Apply the selected solution. Based on the solution space that resulted from cruzada performing activity 4, you can decide whether to put the suggested solution into a real action or adapt one or more previous activities. A morphological box is a n n-dimensional box that consists of a collection of morphological fields, which is constructed to facilitate the development of ideas/ solutions. For Theodore J. Gordon’s Real Time Delphi Method, the Morphological Analysis (MA) is concerned with the structure and arrangement of parts of an object and how these conform to create a whole or Gestalt. The “object” in question can be physical (e.g. an organism, an anatomy or ecology) or mental (e.g. linguistic forms, concepts or systems of ideas). Morphological analysis is a method for rigorously structuring and investigating the internal relationships of inherently non- quantifiable socio-technical problem complexes. The method is carried out by developing a parameter space of the problem complex to be investigated and defining relationships among its variables on the basis of internal consistency. Such an internally linked space is called a morphological field. With proper computer support, a morphological field can be treated as an inference model. Morphological analysis can be employed for: developing scenarios and scenario modeling laboratories developing strategy alternatives analyzing risks relating means and ends in complex policy spaces developing models for positional or stakeholder analysis evaluating organizational structures for different tasks presenting highly complex relationships in the form of comprehensible, visual models. MA is carried out in small subject specialist groups with strong facilitation by practiced morphologists. The ideal size of the group is six to eight participants, excluding facilitators. Basic Morphological Field The method begins by identifying and defining the parameters (or dimensions) of the problem complex to be investigated (the grey column headings) and assigning to each parameter a range or set of relevant values or “states” (the labelled cells under the headings). A morphological field–– also fittingly known as a “Zwicky box”––is constructed by setting the parameters against each other in an n-dimensional configuration space. A configuration contains one value from each of the parameters and thus marks out a particular state or (formal) solution in the problem complex. B. Building a Scenario – Strategy Laboratory MA is especially suitable for pitting strategy models against scenarios. In such cases, two complementary morphological fields are developed: one for generating different possible scenarios based on factors which cannot be directly controlled (an “external world” field); and one for modeling strategy or system variables which can – more or less – be controlled (an “internal world” field). These two fields can then be linked by cross-consistency assessments in order to establish which strategies would be most effective and flexible for different ranges of scenarios.

C. Creating an Inference Model In a linked morphological model, there is no automatically designated driver or independent variable. Any parameter – or set of parameters – can be designated as such. Thus, anything can be designated input and anything output. Strengths and Weaknesses. Strengths. MA straddles the fence between “hard” and “soft” scientific modeling. It is built upon the basic scientific method of going through cycles of analysis and synthesis and parameterizing a problem space. It defines structured variables, and thus creates a real, dynamic model. MA is compatible with other modeling procedures, and can be employed as a test-bed or first step in the development of other types of models. The morphological approach has several advantages over less structured approaches. Zwicky calls MA “totality research” which, in an “unbiased way attempts to derive all the solutions of any given problem”. MA also has definite advantages for scientific communication and – notably – for group work. As a process, the method demands that parameters, conditions and the issues underlying these be clearly defined. MA leaves an acceptable audit trail. In idea generation two types of matrices are used: the morphological matrix and the morphological box (Zwicky) The morphological matrix, also called search field matrix aims at finding new combinations of the variables of two main parameters; e.g. finding new markets/applications for specific solutions. It shows very quickly which ones are already covered and which ones might be interesting market fields to analyze. Weaknesses. MA requires strong, experienced facilitation (if this is to be considered a weakness). Parameterizing a problem space by creating and linking structured variables is considerably more difficult and time-consuming than developing an influence diagram containing “black box” variables. Takes time. MA cannot be effectively carried out in groups larger than 7–8 participants, where the whole point is to foster dialog between subject specialists.