Scenario, context analysis

Scenario analysis is a process of analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes (scenarios). The analysis is designed to allow improved decision-making by allowing more complete consideration of outcomes, and their implications. In economics and finance, a financial institution might attempt to forecast several possible scenarios for the economy and it might also attempt to forecast financial market returns in each of those scenarios. In politics or geopolitics, scenario analysis involves modelling the possible alternative paths of a social or political environment and possibly diplomatic and war risks. In other areas scenario analysis can be important and illuminating. For example, analysis of the probability of the earth being struck by a large celestial object (a meteor) suggests that whilst the probability is low, the damage inflicted is so high that the event is much more important (threatening) than the low probability (in any one year) alone would suggest. Visualization of Scenarios Due to the complexity of possible events, a major task related to scenarios is their proper visualization. Snake Box diagrams might serve this purpose as well as scenario spiders. Computer-aided Morphological analysis provides another way to structure, analyze and visualize complex scenario spaces. Exploratory Scenario A scenario is a set of plausible hypotheses in each key issue. The aim is, first of all, explore and then reduce space scenarios (morphological analysis), taking into account the exclusions derived, for example, possible incompatibilities between certain hypotheses. The question that arises, then, is how consistent are the shortlisted scenarios. The method (SMIC Test experts) consists of asking participants about the possibilities of this hypothesis of simple and conditional occurrence. Their questions will likely deduct the probabilities of various global scenarios. Consequently, exploratory scenarios will be chosen among the most likely.

These scenarios are thus built with no a priori objective. However, they will allow marking out the long-term freedom space of a major actor such as the one who leads the study. So, they will be crucial for the elaboration and determination of strategic options. On the other hand, the strategic options will convey an intention, some objectives, as well as the pursuit of a wished future.

Method that studies regional, global and sectorially the Basic factor: political, economical, educational, health, security, work, Exchange, alliances, etc.