Wild cards

Low probability but high impact events. They represent events, such as the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the 9/11 terrorist events in the US, the Asian Tsunami of December 2004, which were unanticipated (even though with hindsight, they seem remarkably plausible). Wild cards such as political revolutions or environmental catastrophes prompt consideration of significant but inadequately considered factors. They show a future development or event with a relatively low probability of occurrence but a likely high impact on the conduct of business. They represent events, such as the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the 9/11 terrorist events in the US, the Asian Tsunami of December 2004, which were unanticipated (even though with hindsight, they seem remarkably plausible). Wild cards such as political revolutions or environmental catastrophes prompt consideration of significant but inadequately considered factors. Several papers treat the distinction between Wild Cards and Weak Signals or the distinction between gradual change that suddenly dawns on us as a massive shift and discontinuities, which are sudden surprises. So Wild Cards not only transform reality but also revolutionize the future and rewrite the past. A Wild Card moves so fast that there is not enough warning to allow the rest of the system to adjust to the shock. Wild Cards can originate from quite different sources: unintended consequences of human action (political processes, scientific breakthroughs, risks of innovations…) or unknown processes in nature (possible tipping points in ecosystems, near-Earth objects…). Generally, they can be systematized according to their origin e.g. along STEEP sectors (society, technology, economy, environment, politics). From an epistemological point of view it is useful to distinguish three types of surprises: Events that are known and relatively certain to occur but without any certainty as to timing (type of “the next earthquake”); Future events that are unknown to the general public (or even the researchers) but that could be discovered if we only consulted the right experts or if we had adequate models (type of “impacts of climate change”); Intrinsically unknowable future events that no expert has in mind, where we lack concepts and means of observation (type of “unknown unknowns”). There are different ways to do this, in particular: Brainstormings. Given the right creative atmosphere, group processes result usually in a multitude of Wild Cards. You should be careful not to concentrate only on “bad” Wild Cards (“What is the worst which could happen to us?”) but also ask for “positive”, beneficial ones. Expert interviews. You can interview people about what they think are potential Wild Cards or engage them in a debate about surprises. Surveys. Experience shows that surveys (in particular Web-based surveys) are a good means to collect a large amount of Wild Cards. One can either use open questions or start with “seed ideas” as examples. Historical analogies. One approach is to look at similar situations in the past, determine which of the events were Wild Cards at that time, and construct analogies for the present situation. Science fiction. Since science fiction frequently tries to deviate from conventional thinking, it contains a lot of Wild Card ideas. One can also use the sequence of events described in science fiction narratives to construct post-Wild Card scenarios. Impact factors: The Formula for Wild Cards There are three major characteristics—impact on human systems, implications, and high rates of change—in a simple relationship that yields relative impact. The outcome of a Wild Card can be seen as positive, negative, or, in some cases, both. This is addressed in an additional Quality Factor. The value of the quality variable gives the prediction of the net effect of each. Wild Cards of the third category (the “unknown unknowns”) escape from any kind of observation or monitoring. But as soon as we have a Wild Card “on our radar screen”, we may find precursor events that make the Wild Card more probable (or even inevitable) or indicators that hint at a rising probability – the upcoming Wild Card. Precursor events or the fact that an indicator surpasses a certain threshold may be interpreted as Weak Signals for the Wild Card. Therefore, monitoring does not refer to the Wild Card itself but to the Weak Signals announcing its arrival. From the perspective of monitoring, we can add another factor to the assessment described above: the Foresight Factor. This factor reflects the theoretical possibility of anticipating the event. Dealing with Wild Cards requires innovative, unconventional methods. Nonlinear and “out-of-the-box” thinking Systems thinking Creativity training Intuition Associative thinking Dreamwork To respond effectively to certain Wild Cards, we will also have to redefine basic concepts such as: self-interest, national security, standard of living, work, etc. We will almost certainly have to reinvent all or most of our educational system, government, economy, families, and military. An institutional process for dealing with Wild Cards Identify high-interest Wild Cards and segment them according to options: Those that must be addressed Those that can or should be addressed Those events that can only be prepared for, not averted (usually revolve around individual natural events—those things for which humans are not the direct cause) Those events for which there are likely to be no warnings Those events that are potentially too big for the system to adjust to Those events that might be changed Those for which a new solution must be invented Those for which existing tools (education, stockpiling, etc.) can be used. Determine what kinds of lesser events would point to the coming of a Wild Card. Put in place a dedicated scouting group that looks for early indicators (traveling, probing, reaching). Ensure that all organizational units are aware of general concerns and interests: Make the whole system an information-gathering device. Have a central clearinghouse where all of the information is received (probably electronically, perhaps a Website). Structure incoming information: early indicators, linkages, new events, unknowns, and confirmations. Develop an ability to display information spatially in sophisticated ways that quickly suggest what might be happening. Show systems, relationships, early indicators, and potential effects. Understand the high-interest Wild Cards and decide what can or must be done about them. Create an action plan to influence those selected potential events that can be influenced. Set gates or trip wires that generate increased attention to a particular event, as it appears more likely. Strengths and Weaknesses. Strengths This method provides an approach to overcoming blind spots in our perception of the future. This focuses on possibilities, usually forgotten or underrated, on “wild” and strange ideas, which nevertheless have the potential to occur and to determine the future shape of things. It helps to survey the whole horizon, to question one’s own mindset, and to understand dramatic change. It addresses ruptures and discontinuities that go far beyond gradual change. In this respect it can counterbalance certain shortcomings of trend-driven foresight. Wild Cards are quite effective when used with scenario-building following the next general rules: Have to be appropriate to the situation. Although they do not have to stem from the central area of the study they should be associated with it. Should be as original and as new as possible. Their consequences should not be immediately apparent. Are “barely possible” according to conventional thinking should be used more. The analysis should not be limited to only two or three Wild Cards. “Negative” Wild Cards that undermine the constructed scenario should be considered first. They are usually a good test of the stability of the scenario. Wild Cards with a strong contextual reference to the scenario should be combined with Wild Cards that primarily change peripheral conditions and environment of the scenario. In order to avoid potential prejudices, it may be useful – especially when identifying Wild Cards – to incorporate outside expertise into the study, either through interviews or a workshop. Wild Cards are also used in modeling, where the Wild Cards take the role of exogenous excitation and are introduced periodically or at random times. Weaknesses. In a way, the advantages of Wild Card methodology are also its drawbacks. Most Wild Cards seem to be – at least at first glance – far-fetched, implausible or even utterly impossible. Sometimes much effort is needed to convince people that it is nevertheless (or more exactly: therefore) even more valuable to consider them. Another difficulty arrives when one draws conclusions and tries to implement them. These conclusions are often counterintuitive or in contradiction to well- established convictions or to lines of action already firmly established. Therefore, barriers of acceptance may be high. Wild Card approaches may not fit very well into the organizational environment of a company or administration.