Researching Futures of X

(Indo-European bhudh-skō Lat. futūrus X) A complete set of research activities aimed at determining the preferred futures of X (“X” being an organization, corporation, nonprofit, church, community, nation, concept, concern, process, activity….anything) should follow this sequence. No step should be omitted. 1. Articulation of a theory of social stability and change that will guide research on the futures of X. The theory may be based on biology, environment, culture, technology, decisions/actions/events, or many, many other assumptions. As developed in our book, Mutative Media, we believe that technological change is a major agent of social stability and change in the world we live in now. Other futures researchers might use a very difficult theory. 2. Identification of the major driving forces (“drivers”) according to the theory that are important for the creation and evolution of X. According to our theory of social change and stability, “technology and technological change” (as we define it) is the primary agent of social stability and change, and then such things as population, resources, energy, environment (natural and artificial), culture, language, myths, leaders, political economy, and other drivers, which currently are strongly influenced by technological change, become independent drivers on their own. 3. Research of the history of the driving forces in relation to X. This is a crucial part of the research. Your historical research will show that the main drivers in the past explain why X began; how and why it was structured the way it was; and how and why it changed (or did not change) over time. This means that you must study not just X itself, but also those aspects of the broader environment of X that contributed to the origin, mission, structure, change, and continuity of X. 4. Description of the present condition of X and of the environment of X in relation to those drivers only. 5. Review of what others have written about the futures of X. It is important to know what others have written about the futures of X so you may learn from and improve upon their work. 6. Identification of significant drivers (now also called trends) of the future. These drivers/trends exhibit the future values of the historical driving forces. The trends show the specific values in the future of the driving forces of the past and present. However, it is impossible to “predict” what the specific future values of these trends will be. Different assumptions about how the world works lead to different ideas about the future values of each of the drivers. Thus, each driver is projected with four different sets of values as determined by the logic if each of the four generic alternative images of the futures. See the Matrix of 7 Drivers by 4 Futures, attached. 7. Identification of emerging issues that might interrupt the trends and/or create new ones. This is extremely important. It is your major contribution as a futurist. Relying on trends to anticipate the futures is never sufficient. Identifying as many emerging issues as possible should make your forecasts more useful and robust (The distinction between a trend and an emerging issue is made clear in a separate document. 8. Creation of alternative futures, according to the four generic images of the futures as identified by the Manoa School. The different values for each of the driving forces into the future, and the different impacts of emerging issues, are what make each of the four alternative futures different. Do not include anything in any of the four futures that is not either the future trend of a previously-identified driver, or an emerging issue. Please use the matrix of Seven Driving Forces by Four Futures to guide your creation of the four alternative futures. 9. Simulated “experience” of the four alternative futures of X. The “experience” can range from simply reading a one-page summary of each of the four futures and discussing the implications, to prolonged, direct experience and debriefing of detailed simulations of each of the four futures. The purpose of this step is to help participants of X examine and re-consider their current naïve images of the futures by “experiencing” what X might be like in four very different futures. This step is crucial before moving to step 10. 10. Exercise in envisioning one or more preferred futures. When possible and appropriate, preferred futures visioning is a group process, involving everyone (or representatives of everyone) who will be impacted by the actual futures of X. The wider the participation, the better. Sometimes, if the futures of X process involves only a single futures researcher or research group, and perhaps a few people currently active in or concerned about X, futures visioning is done by only one or a small group of people. But the entire point of the Futures of X process is to arrive at a dynamic vision of a preferred future of X that will be used to guide decisions concerning the futures of X. 11.Description of preferred futures. There are two basic ways the description of a preferred future of X can be generated. If the study is done by a futurist or futures research group for their own purposes, or simply in order understand the futures of X, then the futurist or futures group will create the description of a preferred future of X on their own. If the research was being done by a futurist or group for, and with the participation of members of, the organization, then, after the general contours of a preferred future for X have been identified, a small representative group of people within X will work together (preferably with but possibly without the futurist) to craft a relatively detailed description of that vision, so that designers, planners, and policymakers can then create designs, plans, and policies that can be used to guide X towards the preferred future. 12. Development of a strategic design or plan and sector designs, plans and policies based on the preferred futures so that they are robust/resilient in regard to all four alternative futures as well. This should be done by professional designers, planners, and policy makers who have been actively involved in the prior futures process so that they fully understand the rationale behind the preferred future. Otherwise, latecomers may sabotage the entire effort by ignoring parts or all of the preferred future. Ideally the futurist/futures group should be involved in the designing/planning/policymaking process, and sometimes a futurist organization is able to devise designs, plans, and policies on its own without additional professional assistance. 13. Determination of specific personnel, policies, and funds for carrying out the plans and policies, with appropriate oversight and review. Unless steps are taken to begin moving X towards the preferred future by the commitment of funds, personnel, and policies, the entire process is meaningless. 14.Day-to-day decisions made by personnel on the basis of the policies. Achieving the goals resulting from the futures process must become the general responsibility of everyone involved with X, and the specific responsibility of funded, dedicated personnel within X. 15. Institutionalization of futures research, continuing scanning, and periodic repeating of the entire process. This is also one of the most important elements in the entire process. Unless futures scanning and re-evaluation of preferred futures is a routine, rewarded, and respected part of X, it might be fun for the few involved in the futures of X process, but will probably have no lasting impact on X itself. Continuously scanning the futures looking for new challenges and opportunities must be the sole responsibility of some person or office in every organization. 16. Periodic evaluation* of the preferred futures and plans by both internal and external participants. Futures are highly volatile. What seemed like a preferred future (or features of the alternative futures) at one time, for certain people, may not be preferred later, or by different personnel. A preferred future is a guiding vision in relation to the four alternative futures, it is not an ironclad blueprint that must be followed without further consideration. While the process of determining a preferred future for X must be respected and the outcomes followed, opportunities for re-evaluating the alternative and preferred futures of X must be provided with sufficient frequency and influence that personnel of X become neither tired of the futures process, nor feel unable to make significant change when it is needed. Seven Driving Forces by Four Futures

Futures:	Grow	Collapse	Discipline	Transform
Drivers:
Technology	Accelerating	Minimal	Restricted	Mutative
Energy	Sufficient	Scarce	Limited	Abundant
Economics	Dominant	Survival	Regulated	Trivial
Population	Increasing	Scattered	Controlled	Posthuman
Environment	Conquered	Overshot	Sustainable	Artificial
Culture	Dynamic	Central	Focused	Complex
Governance	Corporate	Local	Strict Elite	Direct